I'm starting to feel like I've righted the ship. I'm getting used to some of the new regs' playing styles and old regs' new playing styles and have started creating value by making bluffs and picking off their bluffs. I'm going to assume the other day was an aberration because for most of my last session, my non-showdown line looked pretty good. I actually made a decent amount of money yesterday even though I got set-over-setted twice (once in a 200BB pot) and KK < AA in a 200BB pot. Oh, and below ev again, of course.
I'm on the verge of breaking out my 200K hand break-even stretch. Sounds pretty sick to mention it. I never thought I could ever go that long without winning. I always thought 100K was closer to the most you could go for a decent player. Hmm... maybe it is, and I'm not a decent player. Yeah, part of it was learning a new game (which I'm still learning), but I had been break even at the full ring games as well. I'm not out of the woods, but it really is true what they say - you can go an absurdly long period time of run-bad - worse than you ever thought was possible. To be fair tho, I did make a lot of spewy plays, had some problems adjusting to new regs and new playing styles, but I think most of that has been corrected. Now I have to build on what I think my strengths are and to add start expanding my game.
I was looking thru my HEM and was shocked to see that I was playing 18/14 in 6max. I mean that's pretty nitty. But I don't think that it's all me. As mentioned in a theory post a few months ago, the equilibrium PFR in 6max is going to be 16.6, because the sum of PFRs at a table can not be more than 100. Even if you took six 25/20s and sat them down at a table, their pfr FOR THAT TABLE can not be more than 100.
[EDIT: I was wrong about all the PFRs at a table adding to 100, because the PFR statistic INCLUDES 3bets. So you can have more than 1 person credited for being a pre-flop raiser per hand, so the sum can be greater than 100. But I did not change the post so you can marvel at my stupidity.]
When I select which tables to play, I generally look for loose tables. It's a function of that old poker adage - when the tables are tight, play loose and when the tables are loose, play tight. Since I naturally play tight, I prefer playing at looser tables. So what ends up happening is that I'm sitting at a table with a bunch of LAGs (and hopefully a loose fish), and those guys open so much that I don't get a chance to be the pre-flop raiser as often. I generally try to open like 15% UTG (which I think is closer to game theory optimal), but when I'm sitting with a bunch of guys who open 25+% UTG, when am I ever going to be the PFR? This is what it must feel like to stand behind me at the buffet. You see the food, but aren't sure if you're going to get any. I'm pretty sure if I sat at a tight table, my PFR would be > 17. My VPIP is low because I think I fold too much from the blinds (later post). Stay tuned for more poker theory musing from a rakeback pro.