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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Since there was some demand, here is the second installment of my stats analysis series...

Today, I'll talk about the "HoleCard" report in HEM.  It's actually fairly instructive to see what your win rate is by hand.  Sometimes, there may be certain types of hands you don't play well.  So here are "Mark's" win rates by hand (I left out suited connectors, aces, and gappers because I don't have any useful benchmarks).  I think the following are "reasonable" win rates for premiums in the small to midstakes games (for a decent winner).

AA 9.5 bb/hand
AK 2.0 bb
AQ 1.0 bb
KK 6.0 bb
QQ 3.5 bb
JJ 2.0 bb
TT 1.0 bb

There are two things that stand out on Mark's breakdown.  The first is that his win rate on premiums is lower than what I think is typical for a "moderate winner."  I think a big part of that is his low 3bet strategy (which I discussed last time) - it makes it more difficult to get paid on on monsters.

The thing that really stood out is his win rate on low pairs.  The full ring games are known for absurd levels of set mining.  As you can see, Mark is leaking from the low pairs.  Set mining is definitely a useful weapon, but you really need to be judicious as to when to use it.  The fact of the matter is, in a heads-up pot, you need 2 bets out of your opponent JUST TO BREAK EVEN (assuming you can't take the pot away some other way).  There are a whole bunch of people you are rarely getting three streets of value from (let alone stacking) - even if they have TPTK.  Obviously this also depends on your own image.  Even in multiway pots, there might be times where people will fold TP to a second bet.  You need to recognize what situations you are likely to get paid off.  Don't be a set mining monkey.

Let me know if you want me to do more of these.  BTW, if 5 people post their premium or pocket pair win rates for the year in the comments, I'll post mine.  ;-)

13 comments:

  1. From 560k hands 100NL FR this year:
    AA - 10.44
    KK - 6.90
    QQ - 3.85
    JJ - 1.96
    TT - 1.33
    99 - 0.85
    88 - 0.27
    77 - 0.60
    66 - 0.67
    55 - 0.34
    44 - 0.21
    33 - 0.23
    22 - 0.10
    AKs - 2.23
    AKo - 0.92
    AQs - 1.25
    AQo - 0.56

    -raw force

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  2. You have a VERY NICe blog sir. Glad i bumped into it. If you're interested in sharing links, i surely am. I also hadchoice between online poker and a job ( i'm also 40 andstayed home for 2 years with wife and kid ;-) ), but i chose the job as they are making it hard for poker players in my country ( or plan to make it hard from 2011 on ).

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  3. raw force,,,, I will look up my stats later but quick question. From you post, it shows you don't lose with ANY pocket pair. I am SURE that is not the case for me.... what is your secret? 'course you can PM me if you don't want the world to know ..... or at least give Dblyfly more ammo against you..... :)

    King Spew

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  4. Good stuff, keep it coming!

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  5. Mine are close to yours fly (though I am at micro/low):

    AA 10
    AK 14 (exception)
    AQ 7
    KK 6.5
    QQ 4.25
    JJ 2.75
    TT 1

    Interestingly I am losing with ^^ and 22 but pretty solid winner with 44 and 33 (both 3+)

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  6. Sacha, glad to see another old timer on board. :-)

    Raw Force, I'm going to have to agree with KS and say you forgot to put an "-" sign in front of those.

    Brian, your AK and AQ look like they are missing a decimal point. If not, nice job. FWIW, I think in the micros, win rates should be much higher, and so the win rates by hand should also be correspondingly higher. As you move up, it gets harder to get people to stack off light.

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  7. AA 1111.81 bb/100
    KK 759.17 bb/100
    QQ 332.79 bb/100
    jj 166.44 bb/100
    AQo 63.99 bb/100
    TT 127.85 bb/100
    99 140.08 bb/100
    55 65.86 bb/100
    77 66.45 bb/100

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  8. Oh 226,939 Hands .01-.02 And .02-.05 ringers

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  9. Sacha, I forgot to say... let me know what your blog link is and we can exchange.

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  10. full ring (200k), 6-max (131k), your benchmarks
    9.9 13.0 AA 9.5 bb/hand
    1.9 1.4 AKo 2.0 bb
    0.0 0.7 AQo 1.0 bb
    5.6 9.0 KK 6.0 bb
    3.2 5.2 QQ 3.5 bb
    1.9 3.3 JJ 2.0 bb
    1.7 -0.5 TT 1.0 bb

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  11. I've only played online cash for a year and this kind of analysis is extremely educational. Thanks for posting and great blog.

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  12. AA 11.03
    KK 3.09
    QQ 0.57
    JJ 3.16
    TT 1.11
    99 1.46
    88 1.36
    77 1.55
    128k hands last six months 100nl. Recent numbers are a little bit better after opening up, but still obv lots of work for this nit to do.
    Now I believe it's to you, DFly. :)
    -K Syrah



    66 .97
    55 .17
    44 .15
    33 -.73
    22 .01
    AKs .36
    AKo .55
    AQs .24
    AQo .43

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  13. I played some 6max, so that probably helps my premiums a touch and hurts my low pps numbers a little.
    Cards WR
    AA 10.8379
    AKs 2.0573
    AKo 1.6242
    AQs 1.644
    AQo 0.5592
    KK 6.4841
    QQ 3.1141
    JJ 2.3493
    TT 1.6977
    99 0.8147
    88 0.3392
    77 0.567
    66 0.0399
    55 0.1788
    44 0.0796
    33 0.4511
    22 -0.1231

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