You may be wondering how the stats analysis for the fellow 2+2er is going. I'm going to have to give him a name, so I'll call him "Mark." I'm a big believer in the old saying "a picture is worth a thousand words." He sent me 184K hands, but clearly, his first 40K hands and the last 140K hands paint a different picture. Not sure if he started playing differently, or it took that many hands for the regs to adjust, or it might just be variance. Anyway, I decided to just look at his last 140K hands, as that seems to paint a consistent picture, and is the source of his problems.The very first thing to do is to look at your stats by position. Looking at aggregated stats tells me very little. The first thing that stands out is that he is leaking severely from the blinds. If you just folded all of your blinds, you can't do any worse than -50 and -100 respectively, and he's not too far off from those numbers (at -36 and -60 respectively). BTW, I prefer at looking at EV numbers. Just changing his blind win rate to a more respectable -30 and -45 will get him to being a slight winner in ev terms.
Looking for clues to his blind woes, it's clear his 3bet numbers look very peculiar. It's highly unusual to see someone whose 3 bet is 2% or less from the blinds. There are ways to make this work, but in looking thru his 3bet hands, it was clear 2/3 of his 3bets were with KK+, AK. Considering his overall 3bet is fairly low, it is highly unlikely that he is going to receive much action when he 3bets from the blinds. So he's not getting as much value with his premiums as he could. More importantly, he could probably get a ton of value by just 3 bet-bluffing a little more. Most players now open around 30-50+% from all three steal positions. Surely, there is a ton of free money to be had with a 3bet bluff.
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hey fly been reading your blog for a while now and ive just begun a year of evaluating my play as well i found what you have stated verry interesting and am also pleased with my results compared to what you have stated. love the blog as well keep it up
ReplyDeleteHey Fly,
ReplyDeleteHearing how you look at your database is helpful. I play 50nl 6 max on Bodog, but only part time (8 hours per week). I have a database w @ 75k hands, and use it (Leakbuster, ever use?) but there is so much data and so many different ways to cut it and look at it that to hear how others use it is helpful. Thanks.
please post more on this topic, I would be interested
ReplyDeleteI can't be the only micro stakes player who reads here hoping to move up and one day take your monies. :) Would love to see more on how you analyze stats and come up with adjustments.
ReplyDeleteAll right - I'll try and post something else in a few weeks.
ReplyDelete