Will Hill Banner

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

I thought I wold try and have a strategy discussion on the blog.  Let me know what you think of the following hand.  Villain is redxbob14, a lag I had never seen before, playing 30/27, with a 12.3% 3bet (mostly resteals) over only 341 hands (about half of them after this hand).  FWIW, WWSF is 55%, AF is 47/30/14 and CBET is 74/63/50.  My image is on the tighter side of TAG (ie nit).

Merge, $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #10609342

Hero (BTN): $1,074.25 (107.4 bb)
SB: $2,329.32 (232.9 bb)
BB: $2,322.73 (232.3 bb)
UTG: $1,130 (113 bb)
MP: $732 (73.2 bb)
CO: $1,000 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 6 6
3 folds, Hero raises to $26.66, SB raises to $89.98, BB folds, Hero calls $63.32

Flop: ($189.96) 4 9 9 (2 players)
SB bets $94.98, Hero calls $94.98

Turn: ($379.92) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $199.96, Hero ???

There is $580 in the pot after the turn cbet, $200 for me to call and another $689 behind ($889 total).  Do you fold, call or raise?  And why.  If you call, do you call any river?  Post your thoughts in the comments section, and I'll reveal my thoughts in a future post.  FWIW, I like the way I played the hand.  And after some thought, there is a lot of nuance to this hand.  If there isn't much interest in a discussion, I'll just post the results at the bottom of this post.

11 comments:

  1. depends on if he bluffs blank rivers. if so I probably call turn and close my eyes and call river. Although I don't hate a fold since your 66s block some straight draws (although T8 and JT are still out there).

    I guess you could make an argument for shoving the turn to keep him from playing the river perfectly. Although I'm not sure if that is best since his calling range should have you crushed.

    tough hand. interested in hearing your thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  2. This is an interesting hand. I think we have to fold turn. If villain is paying attention, he knows you are a solid tag that won't fold this flop or turn often. So, villain has either two options: bet flop then shut down or go for the glory and fire all 3 barrels. If he's aware of his image and paying attention to board texture--I think his turn and river bets should be weighted towards value instead of bluffs. That's just my 2 cents.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Mr Fly,
    TonyB here - I emailed you a couple of days ago and haven't heard back.
    Can you please get back to me.
    Cheers,
    Tony

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hmm... I have no record of an email from a "Tony" - can you send to doubleflypoker@gmail.com?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Fold pre would be pretty terrible IMO vs this particular villain.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Jam pre>>folding>>calling

    sparky

    ReplyDelete
  7. Min raise turn so that you can river check for value.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I think its close between a turn fold or call looking to pot control. Since villain seems not to be a reg, he may not even be aware of your table image and his wide 3bet range begs for a call. However, villain has displayed a LOT of aggression despite being OOP all the way through the hand. If I had not seen some floating/bluffs from him, then I would be inclined to fold.

    ReplyDelete
  9. This is a pretty standard spot (maybe not for nits :) ), and all three options are viable. IMO, its harder to judge this type of hand based on stats alone (and I hate using stats/hud), I always base these decisions on game flow and metagame between the two players.

    I usually prefer minraise/snap on the flop.

    ReplyDelete