I'm a softie.  You may not think it from some of my "aggressive" views on capital punishment, public holidays, Bernanke, public toilet urination, not putting in enough hours, etc.  But long time readers know better - probably that "crying" post a few years back was the clincher.  What can I say?  I like a happy ending (all varieties).

So it will come as no surprise to you that one of the (many) movies I like watching is Disney's "Beauty and the Beast."  I even bought it on DVD (and Blu-ray, and Blu-ray 3D and digital copy - all for $30 on Amazon).  Disney is so annoying how they only sell their movies once every 10 years or whatever.  Anyway, I'm now set for life.

There are plenty of reasons why I can relate to this movie.  I obviously like animation (Simpsons, South Park, Family Guy, etc).  Long time readers will know I like nerdy women and nice voices.  And the beast is large and hairy.  I'm large but not hairy (since I'm Asian) but I do have this anus...  And I am also into kidnapping women and holding them captive in my dungeon.  Puts the lotion in the basket!  Call me old school - it only took 6 months in the well for Mrs. Fly to agree to marry me.  But I digress...

Anyway, we'll watch a few movies a month as a family.  Even tho this is a Disney "princess" movie, I thought the boys might like it.  They'll basically agree to watch any movie (since we let them have popcorn).  It can't be horrible to know what the girls in their class are talking about.  It's important to watch movies / TV with your kids, so you can talk about any issues that arise.  It's just another way to spend time some quality time with you kids.

The movie starts and the first thing G says is, "I don't really like Disney movies - they sing too much."  Sing too much?!?  This is coming from an 8 year old who needs to sing "I got passion in my pants and I ain't afraid to show it...  I'm sexy and I know it" every friggin time he gets into the car.  You don't know how ridiculous that sounds coming from an 8 year old.  It was a bit more merciful last month when it was "We will rock you."  Obviously from the public urination episode a few weeks ago, he's not afraid to show it.  G - future pervert.  I feel like lmfao is laughing at me.

Apparently B&tB was a little too "violent" for D in the beginning.  So he would walk out the movie during the "scary" parts and come back in when the coast is clear.  Can you guess the part he really enjoyed?  The early musical numbers.  Why?  Because he couldn't stop talking about the three bimbos who were in love with Gaston.  He just kept talking about how he liked girls with the yellow hair - the one in the green and the red and the yellow.  All THREE of them.  And he even talked about them long after their 15 minutes were up.  D - future swinger.

Pervert and menage boy.  I have no idea where they get that from...  eh hem.

I suppose the big take-away from this blog post (my next LDO public service announcement) is this...  spend time with your kids (including watching TV).  This way, you'll know when your kids are going to be deviants, and you'll know you'll have to grind even harder to get that bail money ready.

Yesterday, a former FT reg makes a thread titled "Almost Busto" and explains his situation...

So, I was never really a huge winner to begin with...you know, made a couple of gs here and there, lost a couple, etc. But I swear, no one ****ing runs worse than I do. I was a pretty decent winner pre blackfriday; I took a break for maybe 4 months after, and ever since then have been running worse than I ever thought possible (I guarantee no one has ever run this bad, ever...no one).

Anyway, I need some advice. I currently have a little under 1,000 left to my name. What should I do? I've tried moving out of the country to play...that didn't work. I've tried playing live poker....and that has been meh as well. I just want to win again but it's so hard when my KK always runs into AA, when fishes stack off with JJ against me bvb and hit vs my QQ, etc....basically, run worse than any of you could even comprehend.

I don't want to be one of those people that just disappears from the poker community and everyone forgets about. I want to be a winner. I guess I'm just desperate for any advice.

Next post:

Well, I have a wife and a baby on the way...so no family yet but soon. I really want to make it as a poker player though, should I try to look for a stake? 

My response was this:

SC, a few comments for you:
* if poker's been tough for you so far, I have bad news - it's probably going to get worse. the games get tougher every year. I realize you ran bad, but a lot of times, "run bad" isn't "all" run bad.
* you should try to get a job, if at all possible. are you qualified to do anything?
* I hope you guys have some kind of health insurance that will cover maternity (not all do). if not you need to get a job with benefits ASAP. you can always retry poker in your spare time, but you need to take care of your family first.
* can you post a graph since BF? with ev line (yeah - this only scratches the surface of types of runbad, but I'm just curious what we're talking about here).

GL. 

And then it occurred to me that a lot of you guys may be in a similar situation, since most of you are in your twenties or early thirties, and that's around the time you may be thinking about starting a family.  *IF* you are thinking of starting a family, I can not stress enough the importance of having health insurance.  As a single, young and healthy person, you probably got by okay without it.  After all, your demographic is somewhat unlikely to develop a major illness.  And at the end of the day, health insurance is not "cheap," and you may have more pressing monetary needs.

But when you start becoming responsible for a family, things will be different.  The medical costs of giving birth to a child are just astronomically high.  I wish we had some kind of malpractice and administrative reform, because there is just an absurd amount of unnecessary overhead in the structure of medical costs. You will not be able to afford the costs of having a baby without insurance.

But it's not just about the delivery.  We know *A LOT* of "healthy" people.  And more people than you would think have problems with their kid.  Not sure if it's all the cell phone towers, genetic engineering of foods, the Mayan 2012, whatever.  But we probably know almost two dozen kids who have some kind of medical issue, from mental retardation, to various speech issues, to autism, to various food allergies (some bordering on lethal) to milder issues like ADD.  As the HEAD of your family, you are not going to want this burden of not being able to give them the proper medical care.

FWIW, we know someone who works as a manager at a local department store chain 1 day a week (Sundays) at zero salary, just to get their generous health insurance package.  If you can't give up poker, think about getting at least a part-time job to make sure you have insurance.  So plan ahead and do what you need to do to take care of your family - it's not just about *you* any more.

You can act like a man! [slap] What's the matter with you?

F.U. Bernanke!!!  Rates on hold for 3 years?!?

Sigh.  My interest rate curve newsletter business is going to keep taking a beating.

But it's a good time for people to try and save up in the next few years for a house.
House > gun > food > gold.

You can thank me later.  Grind baby grind!  GL.

A couple of quick hits:

* Happy Asian New Year!  It's the Year of the Dragon, and for some reason, it's considered a lot "luckier" than other years (obviously the Chinese and Mayans don't see eye-to-eye on this one).  So may the luck of the dragon be with you at the tables and in your life this special year. In the poker world, I'd like to give a lucky DoubleFly 2012 shoutout to the following people:

   * to DamnRinger, who got a new full-time job and got engaged.  The dream is over... twice.  ;-)
   * to Andrew Song, who has almost half a buck tied up on FT.  I think you're going to see some of that money this year.
   * to JohnK and family who have been dealing with a severe family illness.  We continue to wish you the best.

Spongebob cookies we got for Xmas

And in my personal world, I'd like to wish the best of luck to my sister, who just started a new pastry business (maybe later post).  She's a freelance graphic designer, but she took a few pastry courses last year and decided to channel her impeccable eye for detail into the world of pastries.

Masters of the Universe Castle Greyskull. Towers made from rice krispies and castle made from chocolate cake.

* Finally, I have to give a shout-out to my New York football Giants.  They looked like crap during the regular season and barely got into the playoffs, but their defense got healthier, and they are on their way to ekeing out another victory of the favored Patriots.

How ironic that the Giants beat the local DALLAS Cowboys to take the last playoff spot in the NFC.  LOL.

Who's that knocking at my door?

Just to present all facts, here is the mystery coach's FT graph (the other graph was for Stars) - hasn't made money in almost 2 years there since 2009 as well.  And again, a negative win rate over an adequate sample.  And the dude owns his own coaching site!!!

Oops.  Forgot to wipe out the name that time.  So between the two sites, that's like a 300K hand break-even in the last 2 years.  Actually, "break-even" would be kind, since he's dropped almost $500K in that time on the two sites.  So would you want coaching from this guy?!?

If someone offered me 5 hours of free coaching and my choices were aejones or a small stakes guy "crushing" at 3ptbb, I'd take aejones - easily.  What would you do?  If someone offered me $7,500 in coaching and I could have 5 hours or aejones or 50 hours of some small stakes dude, I'd rather just pocket the money.  I'm a cheap ass, what can I say?  But I'd still take aejones.

Oh and funny that aejones happens to be Vinivici's boss at Leggo Poker.  "Boss, you really shouldn't be making videos or coaching anymore - you are no longer qualified.  Oh, and you need to stop charging $1,500 an hour on coaching.  We need to start policing ourselves as a community.  Aw-ight?  Umm...  BTW, can I get a raise?"

I just wanted to illustrate that you don't *have to* be a winner in today's games to provide some valuable insight into today's games.  I've learned a lot from watching aejones' videos.  He plays a completely different style than I do and I generally find his videos entertaining.  There are MANY different facets of poker... there's the mind game (like discipline, attitude), the business end (rakeback, bankroll management, etc), philosophies and metagame, styles of play, understanding opponent tendencies, nuances of preflop (ranges, bet sizing, table dynamics, 3+bet pots, etc), and all the various postflop scenarios (too long to mention).  For me to get some value out of a coach, I would much rather talk to some dude who is the best in one area - that can turn a losing or weaker areas area of my game into a +ev one, rather than some dude who does well all the things that I currently do well ALREADY.  To accomplish that, I don't think I need someone who crushes overall.  While I will probably "lean" towards the person with a great win rate all thing being equal, win rate is just one of many factors that go into deciding on a good coach for your particular needs.

In aejones' case, just talking to him about his reads on the other Stars 5/10+ regs could be worth over a multiple of his coaching rate of $1,500 an hour - especially the ones who are vulnerable to playing in 3bet pots.  For those who don't know, AE specializes in forcing people to play in 3bet pots oop (something I don't do much).  And that's the area of my game I would want the "coaching" on.  I'm not going to want to talk to him about spots to 4bet-shove or opening ranges from the BB, because I don't know that he's particularly good at that.  But all he needs to be to be a good coach *FOR ME* is for him to add some value to *SOME* part of my game.  And he can do that - potentially in a huge way.  I can't say that about a crushing small stakes guy who basically plays my game.

If you suck at poker, you probably want to get coaching from the small stakes guy.  But that's how markets are set.  People like me would want to pay a premium from aejones, and the noobs are happy to get the small stakes coaching at relatively bargain basement prices.

Not to mention all the things other than win rate that go into being a good coach - effective communications, organization, problem solving.  I know a guy who got coaching from a mid stakes crusher (also a good video maker) and even tho he seems to work hard, it didn't seem to translate into a noticeably positive win rate.  So win rate should be only one of many criteria you need to consider before hiring a coach.  And you should probably have some realistic expectations of what a coach can do for you. But since I have limited experience with the coaching process, maybe I'll save that for a later post. 

All I wanted to say today was... "Yes.  You can be a losing player and still be a good coach."

I haven't written about poker in a while and since this *is* a poker blog, I should talk about oh I don't know... poker?  There are a few big things going on right now... so I'll talk about one of them now and the others when I have more time.

A few of the small stakes coaches (mostly led by Vinivici) seems to have gotten together and decided to start a thread mostly directed at Tri Nguyen and Daily Variance Publishing.  The gist is that Tri is no longer a winning player and made his alleged million dollars at poker during the glory days (when all you needed was a micro stakes understanding of the games).  So basically a "poker coaches should be CURRENTLY winning players" thread.  And apparently Tri charges $5,000 an HOUR for his coaching.  Secondarily, it talks about unscrupulous marketing practices, such as books being titled "How to make $100K a year...", people not posting their graphs, coaches positing recommendations from their friends, etc.

I don't think anyone is going to argue for less deceptive advertising.  But I'm not going to get on Tri for no longer being a winning player, because as far as I can tell, his books are actually quite good and some of the better ones in the market.  At least until MY book hits the shelves.  ;-)  And as for him having made his "million" at poker during the glory days and that he is nothing more than a break-even player now, it passes my "resume test".  If you can honestly put it down on your resume, it passes.  It's part of his background and part of what he did (I'm assuming), so I'm not going to fault him for using that credential in his marketing.  I think with information being publicly available, if his latest book sucks, the ratings will show that - just as soon as enough people can override his buddies posting the first few 5-star reviews.  Oops, my inner cynic got out.

It reminds me of when I first started trading around 2000 and one of the quants on the desk kept saying, back in the good ol days of bond trading (1980s), if you knew how to use a calculator, you could have made tens of millions of dollars.  Apparently, people barely knew how to calculate discounted cash flow of coupons back then.  Now those same people can't make any money in today's markets.  But it's okay - they've already retired to their private islands in the Caribbean by now.  You just have to make the best of the opportunities that are presented to you at the time.  But I digress...

So I'll talk about the more interesting topic of: can you be an effective poker coach WITHOUT being a winning player?  I don't have any experience with coaches - I've never had one.  Part of the fun of poker is just trying to figure things out on my own.  But I thought I'd illustrate with an example...  Should this guy be allowed to coach?

The dude hasn't made money in 2 years!!!  In fact, he's just dropped money like Charlie Sheen at a strip joint.  Negative win rate, adequate sample size.  His published coaching rate is $1500 an HOUR.  Makes tons of videos, so anyone playing online poker seriously will know who he is.  Oh, and I forgot to mention...  he can't calculate pot odds.

I bring this up because I don't think you need to be a current winning player to be a good coach.  Stay tuned Friday for the exciting conclusion!  (Sarcasm intended)

One of the nice things about playing poker for a living is that we can take random trips whenever we feel like it. G had Friday (and Monday) off for Martin Luther King Day so we took a little overnight trip.  [Warning:  random digression ahead]

BTW, MLK Day is complete B.S.  Of all the "influential" figures in American history, *HE'S* the only one to get his own holiday?!?  It just irks the hell out of me.  Not saying he wasn't a great guy...  "Probably" in the top 10.  But the ONLY person in the history of these fine United States to get his own holiday?  This can only be the result of a bunch of ass-kiss politicians trying to get the black vote.

"Probably" because I hadn't really thought about it.  So I decided to do a little research.  My vote would have been for George Washington.  But last time I checked, being pro-George Washington doesn't win you many votes.  Michael Hart wrote a book that listed the top 100 most influential people in world history.  George Washington was on there, and so was Martin Luther (the Protestant dude), but no Martin Luther KING.  Don't feel bad - Gandhi didn't make it on the list either.  Anyway, there was an interesting list in Atlantic magazine and the top 10 influential figures in American History went like this:

  10. Woodrow Wilson.  I guess beating the hell out of Nazis is considered a good thing.
  9. Thomas Edison.  "Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration."  I wrote a college essay on that quote and got in somewhere... decent.
  8. Martin Luther King Jr.  If getting 8th place gets you the top prize, there would be a lot of happy swimmers out there.  (there are 8 lanes in a pool, for the sports-challenged out there)
  7. John Marshall.  I must've been asleep during this portion of my American history class.  Maybe that's why I didn't get into Haaavaaad.
  6. Benjamin Franklin.  You don't get on a box of Quaker Oats for nothing.  Wat?  That's not him?!?
  5. Alexander Hamilton. The dude on the $10 bill.  Very underrated the $10 bill.
  4. Franklin Delano Roosevelt.  Nazi-hating confirmed.
  3. Thomas Jefferson. Setting that fine American precedent of schtupping the help... JFK, Clinton, Schwarzenegger, etc.
  2. George Washington.  Yup.
  1. Abraham Lincoln.  Mrs. Fly's vote.  I guess they gave him some style points for getting shot.

So I think there's some merit to my claim that MLK Day is all the work of politicians.  Number 8!  LOL.  Hey!  Ass-kissing politicians!  I think there are a lot more poker players than blacks in the US.  How about kissing *our* fat hairy-anused asses and get this regulated online poker thing moving along?  Everyone knows you're busto and can use the money.  So stop pretending like you're not popularity and money whores (because you are and everyone knows it) and let's get the legislative ball rolling, aw-ight?

Hmm... ran out of room for that trip report.  Tune in next time.

"Funny" G story:

We luckboxed and picked a neighborhood where there are a lot of other 3rd graders.  So G has a bunch of friends within a few houses away.  It's very nice to have a lot of friends that close.  We have a small shed/barn in the back yard, so the boys like to use the upstairs as a clubhouse.  Our house is also centrally located, so oftentimes they will come over here to play.  The other parents like us and seem to think that G is an awesome, super-polite and super-socially mature kid.  Because he is - most of the time.

My next door neighbor has a 5th grader who none of the other 3rd graders seem to like (and vice versa).  So when they see each other, they exchange the typical verbal pleasantries that you would expect - "Baby", "Stupid" etc.  LOL upper middle class suburbs.  Growing up in NYC, you're used to hearing more stuff like "mother f*cker", "cock s*cker" etc.  Ahhh memories.

Anyway, the other day G is playing outside with his buddies.  I get a ring at the doorbell so I go answer.  It's the 5th grader and his friend.  I'll call the neighbor's kid "EH" because he has a bit of Eddie Haskell in him (for those of you too young to remember, EH was a character on Leave It to Beaver who acted super polite in front of adults but was pretty mischievous).  Apparently, in the midst of their lover's quarrel, EH claimed that G called EH and his friend "shits" (denied), "stupid" (confirmed) and PEED ON THEIR LAWN (CONFIRMED!!!).

Of course I had to put on my best poker face and act all enraged - I called over G and told him to get in the house...  told him why that was bad and disrespectful, and at the same time, made it a point to tell EH he's older and shouldn't be "instigating" fights by name calling towards the 3rd graders.  And Mrs. Fly took G over to the neighbor's house later so that G could apologize.  G is grounded indefinitely (I'm guessing a "few" weeks - the Mrs. and I haven't talked about it).  Yada yada yada.

But c'mon!  A "small" part of me wanted to give him a high five.  Because a lot of kids when confronted by an bigger and older kid would shirk away.  Gotta love that tenacious, go f*ck yourself spirit.  I wonder where he gets it from?  I like my kids to have a little fight in them...  you don't get to the top of anything by being a mousy little follower.

Of course, a lot of people in prison are probably saying the same thing, so in case my parental talks with G are ineffective, I have to grind hard to get that bail money ready.

[sigh.  My posts are going to suck once G figures out I'm blogging and I know he's subscribing to it.  But don't worry - I think that's still a few years away.]

The next trip report is when some friends of ours bought us tickets to see a Holiday show called the Gift of Christmas at one of the large local churches.  She said it was something her family liked to see every year and it was nice that she included us.

On the date of the performance, I punched it into my GPS and off we went.  I was a little puzzled when we saw a huge billboard for the show and a huge church behind a large field.  But the GPS said we were 1.7 miles away.  I could see the church, but the GPS entrance was still 1.7 miles away!  I realize we're in the Bible Belt, but I was amazed at how large this church was.  It was easily the largest church I've ever seen (aside from the Vatican).  Having lived most of my life in NYC, you just don't see huge church complexes.  My idea of a big US church was St. Patrick's Cathedral.  But it's just dinky by comparison.  And it turns out it's not even on of the 5 largest churches in Texas!  Toto, we're not in New York any more.  Welcome to Prestonwood Church.

(the panoramic glowy things in the photo are all TVs!!!)

The church seated 7,000 people in its auditorium.  SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE.  The Paramount Theater in NY (part of Madison Square Garden) only seats half as many people.  They also had choir seating for 500 singers above the stage.  500 people in the CHOIR!  My local church back in NY was lucky to get 100 people show up for a friggin' mass.  And they had a pit for a 50 piece orchestra.  You don't even see that in Broadway theaters.  They also had large video displays for people in the Uecker seats (that's us).

So I'm expecting this high-school-musical-quality of performance, but this was actually quite good.  Mrs. Fly thought it was at least as good as the Radio City Christmas performance.  I didn't think it was as polished, but I have to cut them some slack since these people are just church members.  Some of the singers were quite good, and it wouldn't surprise me if they sang for a living around the Dallas area.  They even had some minor pyrotechnics and a bunch of acts involving flying sleds and angels.  Apparently, this church is well known for their  Holiday performances and you can get a copy on DVD (I only see MP3 downloads on Amazon).

The first half was very entertaining, as they did all the pagan songs like "Frosty the Snowman", "Rudolph", etc.  Interspersed were the commercials, where one of the ministers said a few words.  The second half was mostly religious songs, so it kind of dragged on.  It was actually a very long performance.  I was only expecting it to be like 1.5 hours, but it went on for at least 2.5.  They even had an intermission, for people to go pee.

Of course, my little pee machine (aka D) needed to go during the 3 hours we were there.  Upon entering the bathroom, it looked very nice and clean.  Yes!!!  These are all good Christians after all.  So I go into one stall and I see one of the parishoners had previously needed to exorcise some demons... out of his ass.  And it was not one of the minor demons either.  So that toilet was unusable.  I go to the other available stall and of course it was had urine on it.  Apparently the good Lord wants you to pee all over the friggin' rim so the next person can't use the toilet.  Sometimes, you need to look under the hood before you buy a car.  What looks nice on the outside may not be so nice.  Later on, I find out the church had a major sex scandal a few year back - a 53 year old minister tried to have sex with undercover 13 year old.  Shocker.

Overall, it was a positive experience.  I would like to go back again for more holiday performances, and maybe even a Sunday service.  A Sunday service?!?  Aren't you a devout atheist?  Won't your martyred Catholic ancestor be rolling in his grave that you are going to a non-Catholic church?  As I've traveled a lot, I like to see how people in different parts of the world live.  If I can go see women spitting out ping pong balls from their hootch in Bangkok, why not see a Baptist service in a mega church in Dallas?  Yes.  I just compared a tiger show to a church service.  Performance is performance after all.

Wait... who's that knocking at the door?