Another month, another month of -ev.  Fortunately it's less than $1,000 this month, so I can live with that.  And after a terrible start, I've had my best month this year (nowhere near brag-worthy tho).  The things that can be accomplished when you don't run 20+bis below ev every month!  So rather than posting another photo of EB this month, I thought I would post something else that would please Mrs. Fly (she collects Chanel bags).

The book is finally screeeching off the blocks.  I think it's going to be a little more comprehensive than I initially thought...  maybe as thick as SuperSystem, but not written in an 18 point font.  Speaking of screeeching, my chair is still in agony from having to support my fat ass through long poker sessions.  Poor guy.  Still not losing any weight.  But enough about me...

The big news in the family last month is that G fulfilled all his requirements for a Cub Scout and is now a Bear.  Damn!  Kids really do grow up fast.  Anyway, I wanted to put in a few good words about the cub scouts.  Basically they only meet once or twice a month, but the kids get to do a lot of stuff they normally wouldn't.  So here are the Top 5 things that we did this year that we normally wouldn't:

5) G learned knife safety, got to whittle and got a pocket knife.  You never know when those knife skills will come in handy.

4) They have campouts twice a year, and it's actually not as painful as that sounds.  The kids get to play together, and they have entertaining campfire activities.

3) We engaged in a few community service projects.  We went door-to-door to collect food for the needy, and we also went out and cleaned a local park.  We should all do our part to support our community, and it's good that kids are learning that from a young age.

2) We built and raced miniature sailboats and cars.  Sure, our boat and car sucked, but there's something to be said for G having done a lot of the work himself.  We also built a little wooden toolbox, where he keeps some of this prized toys.

1) The popcorn sales were kind of annoying, but G learned how to go door-to-door and talk to people.  There are tons of people who have problems talking to people they don't know.  But it's an acquired skill - developing social confidence is as important in life as doing well in school.

And, G managed not to get molested by any pedophiles in the process.  Winning.

Actually, they now have a rule in the Scouts where there has to be 2 adults at all times with the kids.  Of course it sucks if they are both pedophiles, but it's better than before.

Disclaimer: your Boy scout experience may vary - apparently our area has super-high involvement.  Texas Y'all.

I gave my thoughts on NoteCaddy last week, so below is an excerpt from the NoteCaddy Advantage thread on 2+2.  Apparently Alan ran 9bb/100 over a small sample using this product (he obviously got the Eric Bana poster I suggested).  Watch the videos to see a demonstration and read the bottom to see how you can get 10% off!

Note Caddy Advantage:

Over 1,200 hrs have been spent in developing a custom def pack keeping today's game in mind. I was very fortunate to have Alan Jackson (BlueFirePoker Pro and No 1 expert on stats unquestionably) collaborate with me on this.

Each custom def is a specific exploitable leak on your opponent and the guide will explain how to exploit it. They are modeled on the style of reads winning players develop. With a reasonable database you will have have exploitable leaks on almost every single player on your table regardless of fish/reg ratio.

Emphasis is on leaks that tracker huds cannot pick up. Data is arranged in a combination of huds/popups/spark graphs/badges so you have everything you need at the snap of a finger!

Dominate Zoom Poker: The very nature of rush makes it difficult to observe hands where you folded. Have NCA do it for you!

Alan's result with NCA: read the linked post for his thoughts(screen shot of stats included)
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=532

Must Watch: HH Replay with our package from Recent Sessions.

You Get:

• Custom def package-100+ notes Scripted from ground up(more added continuously).
• Complete Tutorial for each defintion-explaining usage in real time game play and how it ties in with other stats notes and your hud.
• Video tutorials covering installation/hud usage/adding def to your own hud.
• hm2 custom hud/Custom Popups (color coded) which integrates the NC defs. Ready to Play out the box.(you can also use your own hud)
• Ongoing support via private forum(not accesible to non buyers)
• Team viewer Support should you need it.
• Discount for custom note creation/private coaching. First shot at any other packs I release.

Pricing:

• NL25 ($60) NCA light pack.
• NL50 and below: $108
• NL100: $180
• NL200+: $400 - Pricing from this point is 2 full stacks.
  

Pricing is geared towards reducing saturation and making sure those that buy this maintain Solid edges. You can always upgrade by only paying the difference. So if you buy NL200 for 400$ and move upto NL400 you will pay only 400 more. Yes NL100 pack will also work with nl50/25/10 etc.

If you are interested email nilay@notecaddy.com and give the code "FLYDOUBLE", and we'll send you 10% back in a few weeks.  I realize this isn't the most ideal set-up, but there were some logistical constraints.  If you are a regular reader, feel free to give feedback on the product in this post.  If you play multiple stakes, my suggestion would be to get it for the lower stake you play, try it out, and see how you like it before upgrading to all of your stakes.  You only have to pay the difference when you upgrade.

Good Luck!

It's been a while since my last PSA, so I thought I would do my part to make the world a happier place....

If you appreciate what someone has done for you (even if it is their job), let others know.

You might be saying to yourself, LDO?!?

But you would be surprised at how few people take the time out to put in a good word for their fellow man.

Example #1: You had great service at a restaurant.  Sure you can do the obvious thing and leave your server a 20+% tip.  But do you know what else you can do?  On your way out, tell the manager that your waiter (get the name off the check) was great.  Sadly, 9/10 times the manager hears about the staff, it's because of complaints.  Lots of bitches bitchin' out there.  Most restaurants have promotions/contests among the wait staff as to who can provide the best service.  So your server will be on their way to some additional cash/perks, AND it will stand out in their boss's mind that they are good at what they do.  And that is worth way more than the extra 5+% tip you left at the table (or in Disco's case, the $50 tip on a $25 check).  Mrs. Fly does this all the time, and the servers at our local restaurants love us.

Example #2: When was the last time you told a teacher / professor you appreciated what they did?  I was always a straight A student, but I don't think I ever said anything more than "thanks" at the end of the year (except for maybe my thesis advisor).  And I certainly never let their department heads or anyone higher up know.  It's just one of those things you don't think about.  The last two years, G's teachers went (a little) out of their way to help G get more acclimated.  So Mrs. Fly wrote them a lengthy thank you email AND CC:ED the PRINCIPAL OF THE SCHOOL.  Apparently, no one ever does this, so the teachers at the school love us.  Because people always bitch to the teachers and higher-ups about how their mentally and behaviorally challenged kid isn't getting As, but they never thank people and let the higher-ups know when someone's doing a great job.  It must be that lost passage in the bible - "do unto others... unless it inconveniences you."

Anyway, if you've had someone who has been great to you, take a few moments out of your day and let people know.  Just a few ways you can be good to your fellow man.

This public service announcement was provided by the biggest heathen on the planet...  Moi.

Good news, fellow poker players! Rather than having this blog just be a complete waste of your time, I've decided to use the blog as a way for you to get some tangible benefits. I'm going to start contacting the people who bring you some of my favorite poker products and see if I can get you a group discount. Less than 10 of you bought waaay overpriced cub scout popcorn, but I think we'll get better results when it's some of your favorite poker products. I just got the idea while I was contacting the makers of NoteCaddy Advantage about doing a guest post (post to come in the near future). Nilay was gracious enough to offer a 10% discount to you guys (not valid on past purchases). And then the light bulb went off. Why not contact the people who make all the software products I like using and get a similar discount?

I'm not a NoteCaddy Advantage user, but I recently started playing around with NoteCaddy and it's an incredibly powerful tool. I think most of you will be too lazy/busy to program all the custom definitions yourself, so having Alan Jackson (Bluefire coach) and Nilay do most of the work for you can be super +ev. The badges feature is especially slick - you can get an icon show up on your HUD if a player (including you) does anything "exploitable" - folds too much to cold 4 bets, folds to a check-raise, river bet sizing tells, etc. NoteCaddy also has a lot of other features, which I'll let Nilay tell you about. This product is the next big thing in HUD technology. You may not end up using it, but if you don't know how it works and what it says about you, you may get left behind.  Even if you don't use the product in-game, it can be pretty helpful analyzing your own leaks, because some of your competitors will be looking at the same thing.

Anyway, I'm going to contact a few other vendors and see where this goes. If you have any suggestions for products, let me know. I'm probably only going to do this for products that I find useful. I don't want this to be a hodge-podge of random products. I may be a whore... But I have my principles.

I wasn't sure what to write about, but since last week was our One Year Anniversary of moving to Texas, here are the three strangest things I find about Texans:

3) Kids start school later here.  Many of the kids in G's class are like a year older than G on average.  There's a kid in the second grade who just turned 10, and G is only 8 and in the 3rd grade.  Umm... WTF?!?  I realize that G will always be one of the youngest kids in his class because his birthday is in the summer, but seriously, how can a non-retarded kid be TEN(!!!) years old and still be in the second grade?!?  I think it has mostly to do with sports (because unlike in the Northeast, sports is like everything down here).  But seriously, do you really want your kid to be some kind of man-child in elementary school?  Maybe it impresses the ladies?

2) The people here (on average) have unusually short legs.  Now I should be one to talk, since Koreans on average have shorter legs, but I just find it kind of interesting.  It wouldn't be as interesting to say people down here were "bigger boned," since that would be kind of a given - Texas is regularly in the top 15 of Fat States.  On the bright(?) side, this is Les Murphy Country - land of the BBW.  But back to the topic at hand...  When Kelly Clarkson (she is from nearby Fort Worth) was first on American Idol, Mrs. Fly would say, "she has really short legs".  I guess it didn't stand out to me at the time.  But now that I've moved here, it seems like a larger percentage of the population has short legs.  And I'm not counting all the Hispanics.  In before racist ban.  I'm not saying there's anything wrong with having shorter legs - I am their leader after all.  Having a lower center of gravity is better for a lot of things.  I'm just sayin'.

1) They don't know their beef!  I had always figured that moving down to Texas was moving down with my peeps - fellow beef aficionados.  But seriously WTF at so many people down here not knowing good beef?  Now that Mrs Fly has befriended many of the local butchers, apparently the supermarkets down here carry a lower grade of beef because many people assume "redder is better."  NO!!!  You need MARBLING!!!  So many of the supermarkets in the area don't even carry USDA choice beef (a standard in the NorthEast) - because choice is better marbled.  The butchers and Mrs. Fly do simultaneous face-palms regularly.  I think the butchers get a kick out of a cute skinny Asian woman talking about fat like Paula Deen.  But at least now they save us the best cuts of whatever beef they get - because they know we'll appreciate the fact that better beef is supposed to have MARBLING!  It's so sick to look at the manager's specials filled with the better marbled beef.  We're not complaining.  And I have never met so many people who claim to looove beef and like their beef well-done.  Seriously, WTF?!? Go chew on some cardboard.  It's up there with people who claim to looove sushi and only order California rolls.  If that's what you like, then fine, but don't claim to be qualified to give any kind of opinion on the subject.  Mrs Fly doesn't give opinions on how to solve partial differential equations (easily the worst math mind I know - especially for an Asian), and I don't give advice on how to stick to an exercise plan or how to run good (even tho I just did).  In before someone says I'm not qualified to write about winning poker.

Anyway, I love it here...  It's just a little different y'all!

OMG!!! I think my doom switch is finally over! I actually had a few sessions in a row where I didn't feel like I'm getting ass-raped, and I'm actually +ev on the month.  Not by much, but running just a little over ev feels like I'm winning every flip.  Woo hoo.  Sometimes, luck is all relative.

I'm not super-stitious... It's not like I'm going to wear the same underwear as long as the run-good continues. Pretty sure Mrs Fly would have filed divorce papers before the crust starts ripening. But why make any major changes when things are going so well? Sure, it may turn off some readers more accustomed to seeing photos of skanky (poker) women, but I'm a progressive kind of guy. I have a bunch of female readers (mostly Mrs Fly's friends), and maybe some gay readers (you know who you are, because I don't). I have to do what I have to do to keep this going.  So here's another offering...

Sure, you may find this distasteful... But c'mon! If you just went thru a run-bad like I just did, you would do the same thing. You might even start buying up posters of Eric Bana in Lucky You and put it up in your room. Surely having people think you were gay but run good is better than being doomswitched and having heterosexual stabbed ankles?  No?!?  Ummm... Okay. Maybe it's closer than I thought.

But I'm going to keep changes to a minimum while this run-good continues.

All joking aside, I think part of the "run-good" is actually having finally switched over to HEM2. It's still quite buggy and laggy (so I don't know if PT4 is better). But when you are involved in the business of online poker, you really can't afford to be behind in technology.  Not just in evaluating your opponents' play, but your play as well.  A few of the features have been pretty helpful to me in terms of making better decisions.  Maybe I'll make this into next month's strategy post.  Maybe.  Maybe I'll put up another poll next week.  I'm also open to suggestions.

OMFG!!!  When is this poker doomswitch going to stop?!?  So I played 77 hands at NL1000 last week.  The only two big pots I played was AK aipf vs ...  that's right AA!  And then my flopped set in a 3bet pot got wanged by a 2 outer on the river.  In only 77 hands!  Aaagh!!!

Where's that mother f*ckin screwdriver?!?

Well, I'm not at that point yet...  By some friggin' miracle, I'm still up on the month.  Sigh.

But obviously my tribute to the Poker Gods did squat.  Was Han Ga In was too "wholesome" looking for them to care?  Maybe I needed a photo with more skin.  Perhaps the Poker Gods only like skanky offerings?!?

Or maybe I'm just heading down the wrong path altogether.  Perhaps there's another being more powerful than the poker gods?  Let's re-evaluate... Posted photo of cute woman.  Photo displeased Mrs. Fly.  DoubleFly got wanged.  Maybe I should post some photos that Mrs. Fly would approve of.  Hmm...

Eric Bana.  Hands down the guy that Mrs. Fly thinks is hot.  So that's why she married me!  For my resemblance to EB!  Eh hem.  Anyway, he's the only guy on her "unfaithful list."  For those of you who do not know who he is (because you have a life), he was in Troy, Hulk, Blackhawk Down, Munich and Star Trek.  And one of the worst poker movies of all time, Lucky You.  This is a poker blog after all!

The reason she likes him so much?  He's apparently an unbelievable p*ssy - i.e. very devoted and thoughtful to his wife and hangs out with her all the time.  O wait a sec...  Doh!

I have no idea how she would know all of this.  I am disgusted that *I* know this.  Thanks Mrs. Fly - for cluttering my puny mind with useless bits of information like this.  All the secrets to luckboxing I got from Newman went out one ear, and was replaced by useless housewife gossip.

Hopefully this new hunky offering will do the trick.  Otherwise, I'm going to have to try the skanky hottie route.  Or maybe I need to think out of the box on a new "offering" ...

Welcome to the first monthly strategy piece on the blog.  Since I've been playing a lot more 6max, I just felt like I was getting 3bet up the yin-yang.  So I decided to see if I could quantify this.  I used HEM to figure out on the hands where I was the PFR, what percentage of the time I got 3bet, by position.  These stats aren't readily available in HEM so I had never seen them before.  The results were a little surprising.

The first column of numbers is just the percentage of time I was the PFR, and I faced a 3bet.  I then estimated the average I was getting 3bet by each player behind me.  So when I open raise from the CO, I face a 3bet 17.7% of the time, which translates to each of the three people behind me 3betting me 6.3% of the time (on average).  It sounds like a lot, but it isn't really.  {AQ+,JJ+} is about 4%, so it's mostly just value.  In fact, I was probably getting 3bet less than "normal."  Just by comparison, I put how often I 3bet a PFR (by position).  FWIW, I have fairly normal 3bet stats (4.3% 9-handed, 5.1% 7-handed, and 8.0% 5-handed).  I suppose there are enough 3betting nits in the game so that this could happen.  But there are just as many short stackers and aggro monkeys who 3bet 10+%.  So I'm pretty happy I'm 3betting more than "average".

But it's not about 3betting more than the next guy.  It's all about keeping a good balance and making the most amount of money you can.  One stat I look at from time to time is my "NET win rate from the 3betting subgame".  Basically it's how much money I'm losing when I get 3bet plus how much money I'm winning when I 3bet.  You can convert those dollars to a win rate by dividing by overall dollars made times your overall win rate.  So the 3betting subgame accounts for 2.56bb/100 for me.  Considering most things related to poker is zero-sum, I think that's pretty good.

Getting back to the table, here are a few other things that I can take away from it:
(1) I am not getting 3bet much on the SB.  Probably because I only steal 35% (mostly because I'm playing too many tables to forget to shed my inner nit, but also because I thought I was getting 3bet up the yin-yang).  Now that I know the villains aren't doing much about it, I can easily open more.
(2) I am also not getting 3bet much on the BU.  7.7% may sound like a lot, but it's not really.  Most decent regs 3bet the button way more than that.
(3) It's possible I'm defending a little too much.  My fold to 3bet is around 56% (which I think is in the "reasonable and unexploitable" range), but if people are mostly 3betting me for value, I can probably let a few of my weaker hands go.

I think you can glean a lot of things about your game - both in terms of leaks to look for, and for things you can improve on - by compiling a table similar to the above.  As the games get harder, you're going to have to do some non-level 0 work to improve your game.  I could easily see some dude with an 80% fold to 3bet or 2% 3bet stat losing money on the 3betting subgame.  The bar for losing money in the 3bet game is pretty high considering a lot of fish stack off with worse in 3bet pots.  Don't be that idiot who still loses money in big preflop pots.

I'd be interested to hear what your numbers are like, and would like to get some discussion going on any topic related to this.  I may write a follow-up piece if anything interesting comes of the discussion.  I'm also taking suggestions for next month's post.  I'm thinking about "playing vs 30bb shorties," but I'm open to suggestions.

 Wow.  I am glad that the first quarter is over.  I can't believe I was down another $4,500 in EV last month (24 buy-ins).  That brings my YTD total to almost $16K under EV (68 buy-ins).  The weird thing is that I've been getting wanged a consistently large amount every month.  This is just crazy.

But my ass-raping has gone to new heights this month.  My ev win rate was a decent 4.3bb/100, but...  On a side note, I have decided to start using big blinds (bb/100) instead of big bets (BB/100) for win rate.  As Loco used to point out all the time, we are not playing LIMIT holdem.  The concept of the "big bet" in NO-LIMIT holdem makes no sense.  And considering win rates are edging lower, using bb/100 is more practical (and face-saving).  So I have compiled my list of what I think of various win rates:
   win rate in bb/100
   6+ crushing
   5   solid
   4   meh
   3   needs work
   2   needs more work
   1   think about putting out a $100K system
   0   rakeback pro
   -1   think about short stacking
   <-1   think about burger flipping
Win rates can be much higher the more short-handed you play (ie 6bb win rate in HU is meh, rather than "crushing").

But back to why this month was the WORST of the last three (all of which were pretty bad)...  My ev win rate was a decent 4.3bb/100 over 85K hands.  That's easily 5 figures even at NL200 with rakeback.  BUT I LOST MONEY at the tables last month!!!  That is just crazy.  I lost money because I ran way under in EV AND I got completely wanged at the higher limit tables.  Thank god for rakeback keeping my money-making at poker streak alive.  Sigh.

Of course I didn't do much with the book or the weight loss.  So basically last month was the rare triple range merge fail.

I'm going to start the month off right by making an offering to the poker gods.  I'm posting a photo of a Korean actress I thought was creepy looking (from the absurd amount of plastic surgery she had done), but whose look I eventually grew to like.  She was in a Korean miniseries called "Moon Embraces the Sun" (which I thought was very good, which Mrs. Fly thought was dumb):

Han Ga In

[x] starting the month off right
[x] Mrs. Fly hates this woman (as an actress?)
[ ] will get sexy time from Mrs. Fly any time soon for posting photo
[ ] starting the month off right

Friday will be that first strategy post you've all been asking for.  Maybe I should change the topic from "how often you get 3bet" to "how not to stab yourself in the eye during run-bad."