Post is a little late this week - a lot of vacation planning to do.  I wasn't sure what to write about so I thought I would list the hodge-podge of random stuff I've been thinking about this past week:

1) It seems to me no one wants to talk strat on 2+2, and since a lot of people didn't seem to care about random theory, a good idea might be to ask you guys to send in a hand or two that you wanted some input on.  So if you aren't getting good replies on 2+2, email me your HHs to doubleflypoker@gmail.com WITH ALL RELEVANT STATS AND READS and I'll do an "analysis" for you.  Nothing for you to lose, and it may generate some interesting posts.

2) I want to give a little shout-out to my Miami Heat.  You may be saying, "YOUR Miami Heat?!?  Are you like the biggest bandwagon-jumper on the planet?  First of all you are a NY Yankees and NY Giants fan, and last year you take credit for all the Dallas teams doing well, and now this?!?  What the hell!!!"  I only own two pieces of clothing with a sports team logo on it - a NY Yankees cap and a Miami Heat T-shirt.  I've liked the Heat since Pat Riley started coaching them back in 1995 because I've always been a fan of good coaching.  So my buddy and I would have this annual Knicks-Heat bet that made watching basketball a little more interesting - I think the t-shirt was some kind of wager on one of the playoff series.  Kind of sucked last year when they lost to the Mavs, but they got it this year.  Congrats.

3) I also wanted to congratulate LeBron on a great playoff run.  I just don't get the hate.  Yeah - the Decision wasn't the greatest idea (probably not even his idea).  But seriously, the level of hate of the guy is no where near commensurate with what he actually did - made an announcement that he wanted to move teams and raised money for kids in the process.  What a bastard!  He owes the people of Cleveland... NOTHING!  He gave them 7 good years and he wanted to move on.  Is it his fault they kept surrounding him with scrubs?  It's pretty friggin hard to play well in the clutch when you get double and triple teamed every time down the floor.  Anyway, congrats LeBron.

3) Yet another parent we've met down here that is claiming "my kid is very picky about what he eats."  The kids down here have such poor diets - most of them only eat pizza, burgers, chicken nuggets, fries and assorted junk food.  Probably not shocking that Texas is one of the fattest states in the US.  And more and more, I'm beginning to realize that when parents say their kids are picky eaters, what they are actually saying is "I'm a parenting f*ck-up."  Because when those kids come over to our house, they eat whatever we feed them (most of them anyways).  But sometimes, before the kids will even try it, the parents will say, "he won't eat it."  How the f*ck would you know if you don't let him?!?  Call me old school, but when you are bigger, smarter, stronger, and richer than your kid and you can't get him to try some vegetables, assorted cheeses, fish, whatever once in a while, you are some kind of unbelievable moron.

And on that happy note, I wish you guys a great weekend, and I'll try to have my first trip report late next week.

Turns out yet another of the faces of poker's "glory days" is busto.  Brad Booth is probably best known for this bluff of Phil Ivey on High Stakes Poker.  At the time, it was probably the most ballsy thing I had ever seen in poker.  I had no idea Brad Booth owed a ton of money to people and a few weeks ago borrowed $30K from an online grinder that he eventually lost off the poker table.

Theoretically, you should never go busto as on online poker player, because as a pro you're supposed to have a 50-100x bankroll for the stakes you play.  You go thru an extended losing streak, and you move down until you have a 50-100x bankroll again.  I guess the only way you can go busto is if you keep losing, even in the micros.  But a lot of the former "live" pros apparently had terrible to NO bankroll management.  I doubt most of the guys on High Stakes Poker, ponying up $100+K to buy in, had a $5-10 MIRRION dollar bankroll.  Obviously a lot of borrowing, begging and sadly scamming going on.

But what I wanted to write about today is not bankroll management.  The part that shocked me was the he lost his one of his last gasps at "poker" money at random casino table games.  Like craps?!?  The reason most of us play online poker is because it's +ev.  I've made money 46 months in a row... all thanks to +ev and the law of large numbers.  It blows my mind that someone who *should* be in the business of picking out +ev situations decided it was a good idea to blow his roll on table games.

Almost all table games are -ev.  If you like rolling the dice - just know that it's -ev and keep your losses to a reasonable minimum.  I will occasionally play blackjack, but I know basic strategy (which makes the game < 1% -ev).  But I use a simplified count and I also shuffle track when possible to make the game +ev for me.  It's pretty difficult to make the other table games +ev.  I hear it's possible to manipulate the roll in craps, or that it's possible to detect unbalanced wheels in roulette, but for most people these things aren't on the radar.

Most of America probably thinks of poker as some pseudo degen drunken gambling game.  But it is a game of probability.  Those who can pick out the most and best +ev spots will come out on top in the long run.  This is what I loved about trading.  And this is what I love about poker.  Maybe Brad didn't realize this.

Or maybe he did.  What would be sadder than having a moment of weakness to chase some thrills at the casino would be perhaps that he realized that poker is no longer +ev for him.  And table games was his least -ev option.  Time to get a real job dude.

June 1, 2012 was another Black Day for US online poker.  US players just can't get a break.  Just when Merge was getting big enough to become a major player in the online poker market, Lock Poker (probably the second largest Merge skin) decided to break off and buy into the Cake Poker Network.  So rather than having one large poker network (Merge) and one smaller network (Cake), we now have two smaller equal-sized networks.  Why does this suck balls?  Because now, they have effectively split up the mid stakes player pool and in doing so, there aren't enough people on either network to sustain a large number of midstakes games.  You need a certain amount of scale to keep an online poker site going, and the resulting split resulted in neither site having enough critical mass.  A classic example of the phrase, less is less.

What blows my mind is that neither site seemed particularly prepared for this move.  Revolution is having a bunch of software issues, and Merge decided to release the new version of its software (that ended up being somewhat poorly designed and buggy), making it less enjoyable to play on either site.  That's just what we needed.  Couldn't they have waited until Merge was on firmer base, and they were each prepared better for the transition?

What's sad is that both sites are having aggressive promos to maintain their existing player base.  Merge has their $25K Last Man Standing promo and their $100K rake race, and Revolution has their "$1,000,000" Ronin promo.  I had to put it in quotes because it's basically impossible to get the highest prize levels.  But they both amount to rake-free games for the highest volume players.  I'm pretty sure once the promos end (whether it be next month or later in the year), both sites will start falling.  I used to put in some volume on Merge, but it's really not practical for me to play on a site where most of the games are NL100 and NL200.  Time for me to take another look at ipoker, 888, or maybe even become a douchebag Party reg.  When in Rome...

I've been sick as a dog lately, so I haven't been able to play as much as I would like.  It's so bizarre having a nasty 2+week cold in 90+ degree weather.  So maybe I take a little breather this month, and see where things are when I get back in mid-August.  That'll be about time for my PokerScout traffic review, so that should be interesting.  I hope there's still something left by then, but I'm not holding my breath.  Oh yeah... I can't hold my breath because I'm coughing all the time!

So where are the Flys going on their road trip?  Since this is our first year away from the NYC area, we thought we should go back to see out family and friends.  The great thing about Texas is that it's somewhat central, so we can do maybe 4 giant road trips in the next few years - the Northeast, the Southeast, the Midwest (and Northwest) and the West.  This year it's the Northeast.

So here are some of our tentative stops:
1. Shreveport, LA.  I figure I should check out the closest "major" casino town.  I'm not expecting much, but you never know.  There are two reasonable casinos between 1-1.5 hours away from us, but Shreveport is only 3.5 hours away, so it's do-able.
2. Vicksburg, MS.  G's been learning about the civil war, and I've never been to a historical park before so this could be interesting...  but I'm not holding my breath.  We just need to stop off to pee somewhere, that's not a bottle.
3. Atlanta, GA.  My cousin recently bought a house here, and a few of my other cousins are headed down at the same time to trash his house.  You're not officially part of the family until I clog at least one of your toilets.
4. Asheville, NC.  We're going to see the Biltmore.  Mrs. Fly and I like architecture, and my family used to own a construction business so we're looking forward to this.  I think G will really like this since he's been designing these small houses on Minecraft (usually just 2-3 bedrooms - apparently D sometimes has to sleep in the basement or the roof), and he's just going to be blown away by this mansion.
5. Great Smoky Mountains / Monongahela National Forest / New River Gorge National River.  Not sure what to do here, if anything. All these trees and mountains look the same to me.  Suggestions welcome.

6. Niagara Falls.  We're meeting some friends here and we'll probably do all the touristy things around the Falls, and maybe tour some vineyards.  The views from the hotel should be really nice, since it overlooks the Falls.  If anyone know where we can get some barrels, PM me.
7. West Point, NY.  Like most boys his age, G is really into all things military - probably because his friends keep talking about Halo, Call of Duty, etc (we think it's retarded for an 8 year old to be playing those games, but call us old-fashioned).  I think he'll really get a kick out of the museum.  And my cougar wife probably wouldn't mind seeing a bunch of young, fit guys in uniforms.

8. New York / CT.  We're spending 3 weeks doing various things with friends and family.  A bunch of sleepovers, parties and general gluttony and debauchery.  Even though NY has a lot of awesome restaurants, the ONE thing I'm really craving is a NY corned beef and pastrami sandwich.  There are really only a few places in the US where you can get an adequate one, and I'm jonesing for one right about now.
9. Northern Virginia.  Spending a little time with the in-laws.  I'm pretty sure too much food will be involved.  If we're not too tired, we may go to colonial Williamsburg, but by this point the family may be getting a little weary.

10. Indianapolis, IN.  I think the kids will get a kick out of the Motor Speedway.  Disney's Cars is one of their favorite movies after all.  And they allegedly have one of the best children's museums in the US.  We shall see.
11.  Springfield, IN.  Lincoln historic site.  Lincoln is Mrs. Fly and G's favorite US president.  I'm more partial to Washington myself.  Call me old-fashioned, but when it's a somewhat close call, I'm going to vote for the dude that managed not to get shot.

12. St. Louis, MO.  G has some weird fascination with the Arch.  Maybe because it brings such fond memories of McNuggets and fries.  So why not?  Someone was saying there was some Anheuser Busch locale with clydesdales and other animals that's great for kids.  Not sure if having the 4 year old hang out at the brewery is such a great idea, but I suppose you can't get them started too early.

I have no idea where we're eating, so if any of you guys live in any of the above areas or somewhere along the route, let me know.  We're not necessarily about fancy - we eaten at a bunch of Michelin restaurants.  For the road trip we're looking more for interesting (hole-in-the wall kind of places okay) that do something exceptionally well (fried burgers, jambalaya, anything local - there's almost nothing we won't eat).  Also let us know if we're going to pass by some don't-miss activities, locales or unusual hotels.  This is just a rough draft, and we're going to play things by ear, but we're starting to get pretty excited!  Stay tuned for trip reports on whether it's just me getting excited.