I had been a little bummed out that I couldn't post hands any more, but then I had this idea to post hands of one of my stakes. Since I review their hands every week anyway, why not post something that I think would be educational, or merit some discussion. So here is a hand I thought would be somewhat interesting.
This is a pretty common spot - 3bet with AK BB vs CO, flop nothing, cbet and get raised on a semi-wet but not dangerous board.
Villain is 23/21. Raise first from MP (which is actually CO) is 34%. Hero is 18/16/7.
Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
Hero (BB) ($101.50)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A♠, K♣
2 folds, MP bets $2.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, MP calls $5.50
Flop: ($16.50) 7♣, 3♠, 10♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $8.25, MP raises to $20.70, Hero raises to $85.25 (All-In), MP calls $85.25 (All-In)
Turn: ($215.95) 10♥ (4 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($215.95) 10♣ (4 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $215.95 | Rake: $15.45
Results below: Hero had A♠, K♣ (three of a kind, tens).
MP had 6♠, 7♠ (full house, tens over sevens).
Outcome: MP won $200.50
Obviously, jamming with 2 overs on this board can't be "terrible." You need to do this for balance once in a while. I mean if you were only known as the guy that jams overpairs, how much action are you ever going to get?
Here are some reasons why I didn't like this particular spot:
1) Villain's fold to 3bet from the blinds was 85% (from the CO). Even though he opens a wider-than average 34%, his continuing range is pretty snug. Although considering he defended 76s, obviously not too snug. But it maybe it's because hero is pretty snug (and scs play okay vs tighter ranges)... or maybe he was just feeling frisky that day... and mental retardation can't be complelely ruled out.
2) We have the As. This board has a ton of possible draws. But when we have the As, we probably reduce his flush draw combos by about a half. Ideally, we would like his calling range to be filled with 98s, and xx of spades, so removing all Ax of spades obviously sucks for us.
3) Villain's not really a "folder." Villain's raise vs cbet in 3bet pots is 25%. I suppose this is a touch on the high side. Ideally, it would be nice to see a "fold vs flop 3bet in 3bet pots" stats, but there are going to be some sample size issues with something that specific. However, his overall fold vs raise stat (across all streets) is 36% and his fold vs cbet stats average 43% - not sure if this is that relevant, but basically, the dude is not a "folder."
So my comment was basically that I don't "hate" the shove, but I'm not sure if the spot was "ideal." How do you pick your spots? I would have ideally preferred at least 2 of the three things above to have been more "positive": wide defending range, no As, and high fold to flop 3bet. And a much higher raise cbet couldn't hurt. Knowing when to make a move is the difference between being a decent player and being a solid player.
Obviously, this is just *my* optinion on the hand. TBH, in game, there are plenty of times where I would spite shove depending on how the table was going. I'd be curious to see if you had any comments on the hand.
VPP Pace Challenge
19 hours ago