So here's another stake hand that I thought was interesting... Villain is 24/19, opens 14% from MP. Fold to 3bet of 32%. Fold to cbet 39/25/0. SB is 51/4 fish.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
Hero (CO) ($171.24)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q♦, K♣
1 fold, MP bets $3, Hero raises to $9, 1 fold, SB calls $8.50, 1 fold, MP calls $6
Flop: ($28) Q♣, 6♥, 9♠ (3 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $15, 1 fold, MP calls $15
Turn: ($58) 8♦ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $25, MP calls $25
River: ($108) 2♣ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $108 | Rake: $3
Results below: MP had 9♥, 9♦ (three of a kind, nines).
Hero had Q♦, K♣ (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: MP won $105
My initial reaction was that a flat pre is much better than a 3bet. Villain just isn't a folder (pre or post), and his 14% opening range (possibly wider because of the fish) has 60% equity vs our hand. So we're turning a reasonable hand into a bluff. We have position, the people behind aren't squeezers and in a very limited sample, his 4bet is an "above average" 8.3% (mostly from resteal situations), so there is a chance we may get bluffed off the best hand. But the main consideration was, do we want to risk losing the fish because of the 3bet?
But here's the thing that made me change my mind (a little)... villain's cbet stats were 71/100/100. The turn sample was 5/5 but the river sample was only 1/1. So the dude is probably going to be barrelling every K and Q high flop and we're basically going to have to call down most runouts. And considering his range is still stronger than ours and runouts can get ugly, that could get gross.
But by 3betting, he gave himself a "32%" chance of winning the hand preflop, a "39%" chance of winning the hand on the flop, a "25%" chance of winning the hand on the turn, AND HE ENDED UP LOSING LESS MONEY THAN HAD HE FLATTED PRE AND CALLED 3 BARRELS.
The reason why I'm still not sure about the 3bet is that we could have lost the fish. But the fish ended up calling anyway.
I just thought the hand was kind of interesting when you look at it from multiple levels. Anyone who says poker is a simple game probably isn't thinking about it enough.
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